Tuesday June 30, 2009 at 22:13

Quote

“I love the mornings! I clap my hands every morning and say, ‘This is gonna be a great day!’”

— Dicky Fox from Jerry Maguire

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Tuesday June 30, 2009 at 21:26

Link

The Great American Bubble Machine

An insanely great Rolling Stone article about how Goldman Sachs has been behind the five biggest financial bubbles in modern times and handsomely profited on every one.
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Sunday June 28, 2009 at 21:57

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A six hour road trip / 380 miles. All well worth it. Italian sausage for lunch and hanger steak for dinner. A nice evening fire, a good book and a movie to close out the day. Tomorrow is work from 5am - 2pm, then chopping fire wood and wake boarding. Life is good! PS. Had a hiccup with my Sprint Wireless Broadband which took 2 hrs to fix. Priceless.

A six hour road trip / 380 miles. All well worth it. Italian sausage for lunch and hanger steak for dinner. A nice evening fire, a good book and a movie to close out the day. Tomorrow is work from 5am - 2pm, then chopping fire wood and wake boarding. Life is good!

PS. Had a hiccup with my Sprint Wireless Broadband which took 2 hrs to fix. Priceless.

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Friday June 26, 2009 at 22:20

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The date is set for my transformation from human to bionic man: July 27. I’ve been very ambivalent about this surgery, postponed it, tried to avoid it. Once in motion there is no going back. The success rate is high but there is still risk; something that I happen to be very good at managing in most areas of life. But this is one that I’ve have to rely on trust more than control. Feels new and somewhat uncomfortable. If it works out great, I’m looking forward to a fantastic year climbing mountains, biking, snowboarding and just raising hell in general. A life with no pain and much higher mobility.

The date is set for my transformation from human to bionic man: July 27. I’ve been very ambivalent about this surgery, postponed it, tried to avoid it. Once in motion there is no going back.

The success rate is high but there is still risk; something that I happen to be very good at managing in most areas of life. But this is one that I’ve have to rely on trust more than control. Feels new and somewhat uncomfortable.

If it works out great, I’m looking forward to a fantastic year climbing mountains, biking, snowboarding and just raising hell in general. A life with no pain and much higher mobility.

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Thursday June 25, 2009 at 23:11

Video

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Thursday June 25, 2009 at 17:27

Quote

“

You can’t change people. As a leader, there’s a real temptation to try to change people or help people get to where you want them to go. And I learned, actually through experience, that you can’t change someone. All you can do is help them help themselves.

And so I spend a lot less time than I used to trying to make people do something that either they can’t do, or don’t want to do, and spend more time illuminating what needs to get done. And if they make the choice to do it, great. If not, get them into a role where they can do what they’re good at.

”

— John Donahoe, president and chief executive of eBay since March 2008 in New York Times April 4, 2009

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Thursday June 25, 2009 at 8:25

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Market Thoughts June 25, 2009

I think the market is in for a big correction during the summer. The failure of major resistance zones across the key indices is a telling sign that the bear market rally that started on March 10 might be coming to an end.

Tech, energy and commodities have been driving this rally and they are getting exhausted. Crude oil at $75 / barrel is clearly overpriced as we are only mid-way into the recession. Back to $60 within the next few weeks is both supported by seasonal data and the demand.

The four horsemen (AAPL, GOOG, RIMM and AMZN) have all been failing major resistance zones ($145, $450, $85 and $90). All the weekly charts looks weak.

The market tends to overreact in both directions to flush out the last bull / bears and then change direction. Selling the morning gaps seem to work for now until we correct. A 7% pullback in the S&P 500 doesn’t seem enough in this market. I’d like to see at least 875 or even 800 before the next run - if there will ever be one.

The “green shoots” might just be another hopeful mirage, a grasp for claws as there is nothing else left to do…

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Tuesday June 23, 2009 at 19:34

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“Also not being protected: “smart phone” consumers, tied to long-term, fiscally onerous contracts that effectively leave users stuck for at least 2 years paying above-market prices for phones that do everything except make reliable phone calls.”

— Jeff Macke, another angry AT&T customer

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Tuesday June 23, 2009 at 18:41

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Is it time to buy yet?

I get that question a lot as I warned people to buy into the real estate bubble back in 2006. And the answer is still the same: A big resounding NO! Run as far away from real estate as you can over the next 12-18 months. Remember The Money Pit?

The data that is pumped through the oh-so-objective media channels (FOX, CNBC anyone?) is just a head fake: “green shoots”, home sales stabilizing, market in recovery mode… et cetera. We’ll hit a 10% unemployment rate and escalating foreclosures before we can talk about any bottoming process.

Expectations needs to adjust to the new normalcy, to the post bubble world where fundamentals actually matters. But before we’ll find a equilibrium real estate prices will overextend on the downside, way beyond the long-term average.

Buying real estate today is pure gambling; spending a weekend in Vegas might offer better odds!

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Monday June 22, 2009 at 19:37

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Keep Your Powder Dry

The fact that people love to spend their future earnings is the impetus of the market economy. Getting folks into debt is what making the economy tick. Disguising consumption as investments (a new kitchen, a new car et cetera) is the easiest way to loose money.

There are always three positions to take: sell, buy or sidelines. And in many cases the best ever investment you can make is to do nothing; especially in this never-before-seen recession.

The smartest people I know are out of the market since ‘07, enjoying their risk-free rentals and taking time off from the rate race. Cash is king and might be for the next 3-5 years. Booya!

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