Does History Repeat Itself?

Let’s assume that human history is non-linear and cyclical; that it’s divided into seasons or social eras that repeat over and over again throughout history. That’s what William Strauss and Neil Howe argues in their 1996 book The Fourth Turning which I found via John Mauldin’s (an excellent independent financial thinker) Investor Insight.

They have studied history and found that there are four major seasons or turnings as they call them. Each turning spans about 20 years and each cycle about 80 years, the lifespan of an average human. Every turning has certain characteristics:

• High (spring): renaissance to community life, commercial prosperity, institutional solidarity and political stability
• Awakening (summer): new spiritual agendas and social ideas emerge, soul over science, meaning of things, experimental
• Unraveling (fall): pragmatism, self-reliance, laissez-faire and national chauvinism; public trust declines, pleasure-seeking lifestyles, stabilized family values and protectiveness of children
• Crisis (winter): sudden threats emerge, seeking public consensus, aggressive institutions and personal sacrifice, evolving into a new optimism and relief

The latest saecula (latin for century or human lifespan) and first turning, started after WWII and lasted until the beginning of the sixties. The second turning lasted from mid-60s to the early 80s and the third turning until about 2005-2007.

But their studies goes all the way back to the war of the roses in the 15th century. Just take the previous fourth turnings: current time, the great depression (1920s), the civil war (1850s), the american revolution (1760s) et cetera.

In addition to the different historic seasons there are also different generations and the different roles they are playing during the turnings. In the US we have the G.I. generation (1901-1924), the silent generation (1925-1942), the boomers (1943-1960), the X:ers (1960-1981) and the millennials (1982-2002). Their roles change as they grow older and enter different life stages and turnings.

All of this makes sense to me and adds another tool in trying to understand where we are and where we are going. Seasonality has been a natural part of pre-20th century life: food, weather, social mood, business cycles et cetera. The pendulum has now started to swing back.

It’s evident that we are entering a new era with many challenges: political, social, cultural and economical. The crash of 2008 was one of the key events in my mind. A lot of our old truths will be challenged: that real estate and stock prices always appreciates et cetera. Many things that we have taken for granted will change form or disappear completely. The previous turning - the unraveling - ended in utter and total excess with over-consumption on all levels: housing, credit, financial and things in general. We are now paying the price dearly and most likely for at least the next 5-10 years.

I think we can already see the urgency for big change in the election of Barack “Barry” Obama. It was the millennials, X:ers and the decreasing middle class that elected him (just like JFK when we entered the awakening or FDR in the previous crisis). Segments of the population that have grown tired of the direction of our global society. Despite our technological and financial (questionable) progress 80% of the population is starving while 1% owns 80% of the resources.

I think the current turning - the crisis - is going to be scary as hell for the G.I., Silent and Boomer generation and for anyone that thrives in the status quo. An African-American X:er president that wants to rethink society and found new public institutions? A leader that wants to restore a sense of community, equality and hope? Spending money on health care and education and not war and oil? No wonder the older generation is freaking out during town hall meetings.

The America they built, knew and loved is being replaced by a new and hopefully more equal and prosperous America. It’s still going to be America but better suited for the new world. Just like what happened during the previous fourth turnings.

It’s the natural evolution of history, if one believes that history repeats itself. The best way to prepare and prosper during this time is to accept that we are entering a new era, a new normalcy and stay flexible, debt free and open-minded.

I welcome this storm with open arms as I personally have grown really tired of the past years same-same greedy society. What is the meaning of life if not being and staying challenged to grow as a society and as an independely thinking individual. To solve the right problems and not just to grow fatter. I’m damn sure it’s not about owning a bigger MacMansion and driving the latest sports car. :D